Today, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky visited the Oval Office for a photo op and meeting with President Trump, Vice-President Vance and the greater American political caste. As usual, the American President was completely untethered from reality and historical connection.
Trump and Zelensky have interacted before (Zelensky was elected in 2019 and was famously the other party in Donald’s “perfect phone call” that led to his first impeachment). Zelensky has spent his entire term as President at war, given that the Russians invaded the Crimea and Donbass regions in 2014 (https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9476/), prompting a simmering war. On entering office, Zelensky promptly embarked on a campaign to secure a ceasefire agreement and peace, which culminated in the Minsk agreements of 2019 . These were famously unsuccessful, as the Russians simply ignored them and the Ukrainians kept defending themselves. American aid was limited to humanitarian supplies by a wary Obama, who correctly foresaw the stalemate and realized that our 1993 nuclear-disarmament treaty with Ukraine was not enforceable. Trump sent a trickle of lethal aid, Biden a torrent, but the war did not change.
Today, Trump was bloviating for the cameras, announcing how he would secure a cease-fire, and then peace. His syncophants (J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, et al) were well-represented. But one man wasn’t trying to kiss the golden ring. President Zelensky came with a serious face and a serious mission. His country depends on Western financial and military support to remain in the fight against the Russian onslaught- to keep his people fed, this soldiers fighting and the lights on. For Zelensky, ensuring continued support is his primary goal- everything else, even the long-sought peace, is secondary to that. For whatever reason though, he forgot that Trump is a narcissist playing to his own agenda and crowd. He dared to correct him on his point that his plans had been tried before.
It’s objectively accurate to point out that the Russians and Vladimir Putin have been diplomatically engaged many times, and have not acted in good faith with the agreements they have made. Putin’s primary agenda is his own achievement as expressed by the reconstruction of the Soviet Union; snuffing out a nascent pro-Western Ukrainian democracy on his border is a strategic imperative of his. It’s also strongly implied that Trump and Putin have come to an understanding of sorts whereby Trump chooses Putin’s interests over those of other countries and leaders in exchange for Russian ‘cooperation’ in areas of mutual conflict. I’m not crazy about this, but I can see the rationality of it, and to some extent, it is simply the 21st century application of realpolitik that saw Presidents Truman and Eisenhower cede Eastern Europe to Russian dominance. Put bluntly, regardless of the politics, Americans have no appetite for fighting someone else’s war on the other side of the planet, and with the degree of support that America and the Western Europeans were able to provide, the Ukrainians were not able to win. Instead, they have deteriorated into a stalemate that has torn the heart out of the Russian armed forces, restored trench warfare with static defenses and introduced a terrifying variety of new weapons and tactics to warfare. Trump, for all of his many problems, is well aware that American military support in the quantities and quality he is willing to accept will not meaningfully change this status quo; it will only result in more casualties on both sides. The only way to end the war in Ukraine is for someone to lose, because Russia will not give up and Ukraine cannot give up. The lessons of Vietnam are up and rearing their ugly head- we cannot win a war we are unwilling to fight for ourselves, and if the support we are willing to give isn’t enough to win it, it won’t be won by our proxies. Ukraine has fought well and bloodied the Russians badly enough that a potential peace plan will leave their nation mostly intact, for now, with an opportunity to rearm. That is a tangible benefit they have earned by resisting. But we need to realize that broader Ukrainian goals like the return of conquered territory or reparations are impossible. Force of arms has failed; there will be no grand diplomatic victory or triumph of justice. Trump and Vance realize that and have crafted their policies and political movement to accommodate it, consequences be damned. Trump’s attempted extortion of Ukrainian rare-earths would not have mattered a bit; nor would Democrat outrage or Republican jitters. The only ‘acceptable’ answer for Trump is Ukrainian surrender. Given Trump’s evident other goal of retracting American membership from NATO, Ukraine was never going to get more than token future support, regardless of promises.
Zelensky had little to lose in real terms. Ukraine’s stream of American aid would falter; the primary future source of Ukrainian aid will have to be European. In a way, melting down American relations serves him better than ineffectual and halfhearted promises America has already shown it is unwilling to live up to. At the end of the day, I think this was the best possible outcome for Ukraine and Europe in the long term.
Leave a Reply